Authority Intelligence · London restaurants
Verified 24 August 2026
London Restaurant Planning Speed Index
The verified historical share of comparable restaurant, café, pub and takeaway planning applications receiving a favourable decision within 180 days.
Out of 100
February 2025
231 of 528 observed applications.
Historical six-month approval rate
Trailing 12 complete months · at least 90% outcome coverage
Hover or tap the line · click numbered explanations
Up 6.1% over the last year
+2.5 index points · versus Feb 2024
This is an observed historical planning rate, not a current forecast or an openings index. The rolling window makes changes appear gradually. Markers identify evidence-backed likely contributors, but the available data cannot isolate one cause with certainty.
Market context
Planning speed weakened, then partly recovered.
The rolling rate fell from roughly 47% after the pandemic reopening period to around 41% in early 2024, before recovering to about 44%. Business costs, relief schemes and planning-process changes all altered the backdrop during that period.
Latest index score
February 2025 mature cohort
Observed applications
March 2024 to February 2025
Outcome coverage
Public series stops below 90%
Source records inspected
Exact phrase-matched public records
Live application forecasts
Six live restaurant forecasts tracked by this index
These are genuinely unresolved applications selected from 66 qualifying direct-use cases before forecasting. Each percentage is the average of three isolated O3 views using the official application record and the earlier historical approval rate.
Westminster
Westminster · 26/04063/FULL
Facade alterations, new steps, condensers and restaurant ventilation extraction at roof level near Brick Street and Grantham Place.
Forecast approval probability
18 August 2026Resolves by
14 February 2027
Wandsworth
Wandsworth · 2026/2598
Alterations connected with changing a Sui Generis premises into a Class E restaurant.
Forecast approval probability
3 August 2026Resolves by
30 January 2027
Hammersmith & Fulham
Hammersmith & Fulham · P/2026/00731/FUL
Change from storage into an indoor recreation facility with an ancillary café, accessibility works, cycle parking and waste storage.
Forecast approval probability
5 August 2026Resolves by
1 February 2027
Westminster
Westminster · 26/04601/FULL
External refurbishment of a takeaway shopfront, including full-height glazing and a new traditional-style serving window.
Forecast approval probability
5 August 2026Resolves by
1 February 2027
Lambeth
Lambeth · 26/02289/FUL
Alterations to an existing restaurant terrace, replacing its canopy, front balustrade and side screens.
Forecast approval probability
10 August 2026Resolves by
6 February 2027
Greenwich
Greenwich · 26/1686/F
Refurbishment and extension of a public house, plus a rear hotel building with a ground-floor reception, bar and restaurant.
Forecast approval probability
10 August 2026Resolves by
6 February 2027
Live and unresolved as of 24 August 2026. These are raw O3 shadow forecasts, not validated Authority forecasts. No Authority correction was applied because the restaurant indicator model did not pass its historical uncertainty gate. The six-case panel used 18 calls and cost $0.15.
Underlying evidence
How borough outcomes differ
Shown only for borough cohorts meeting the minimum sample and coverage rules. These are useful comparisons, not permanent league-table rankings.
69 observed of 74 applications
93.2% outcome coverage
27 observed of 31 applications
87.1% outcome coverage
20 observed of 22 applications
90.9% outcome coverage
32 observed applications
100% outcome coverage
25 observed applications
100% outcome coverage
23 observed of 24 applications
95.8% outcome coverage
Method
How to read this benchmark
- Include full planning applications and combined full-planning consent types that explicitly concern restaurants, cafés, pubs or takeaways.
- Measure whether the recorded decision was favourable within 180 days of validation.
- Publish a rolling cohort only when at least 90% of outcomes are known; unresolved cases remain unresolved.
- Keep this separate from business openings, closures, survival and commercial performance.