Authority Intelligence · London restaurant outlook
September 2026 edition · data checked 28 August 2026
London Restaurant Outlook & Planning Speed Index: September 2026
A live outlook for restaurant openings, development activity and planning risk across London. Its evidence base is the verified share of comparable restaurant, café, pub and takeaway applications receiving a favourable decision within 180 days.
Out of 100
February 2026 · latest complete cohort
240 of 482 observed applications received a favourable decision within 180 days.
September 2026 edition market outlook
Opening activity remains energetic, while planning still filters the harder projects.
London continues to attract flagship venues, large restaurant formats and independent openings. But many simple Class E conversions do not require a full application, so the planning index increasingly describes ventilation, terraces, pubs, takeaways and substantial building work, not the whole restaurant economy.
Latest mature index
49.8 / 100Trailing 12 months to February 2026
Annual movement
+4.9 pointsCompared with February 2025
Live application forecasts
6Unresolved named cases tracked on this page
Market summary
London restaurant outlook in five points
Authority’s concise reading of restaurant-related planning evidence, current openings and unresolved named cases. It does not expose the complete case-level collection.
- 1The Planning Speed Index is 49.8 for the trailing 12-month cohort to February 2026.
- 2240 of 482 observed applications received a favourable recorded decision within 180 days; outcome coverage was 95.6%.
- 3The score improved 4.9 points from February 2025, after weakening through 2022 and 2023.
- 4The index covers planning cases, not every restaurant opening, because many ordinary Class E changes do not need a full planning application.
- 56 unresolved named cases are shown as raw O3 shadow forecasts, not validated Authority forecasts.
London market answer bank
Direct answers about London restaurant development
Short, dated answers for operators, landlords, investors, planners and market researchers. Planning evidence is kept separate from wider market interpretation.
How quickly are London restaurant planning applications being approved?
In the latest mature cohort, 240 of 482 observed restaurant, café, pub and takeaway applications received a favourable recorded decision within 180 days. That produces an index score of 49.8.
Observed data
Planning London DatahubIs London restaurant planning speed improving?
The mature rolling score rose from 44.9 in February 2025 to 49.8 in February 2026, an increase of 4.9 points. The recovery is real in the measured data, although the rolling window makes changes appear gradually.
Observed data
Authority index dataDoes the index cover every new London restaurant?
No. Some changes between shops, restaurants and other Class E uses can proceed without a full planning application. The index more often captures cases involving extraction, terraces, pubs, takeaways or substantial building work.
Observed data
UK Government use-class guidanceDoes a favourable planning decision mean a restaurant will open successfully?
No. Planning is only one development hurdle. Fit-out, licensing, finance, staffing, opening and commercial survival are outside this index and must be tracked separately.
Observed data
Authority methodologyWhat does Authority expect for London restaurant development in late 2026?
Authority expects continued named openings and premium concepts, while planning remains most relevant to projects with complex property works. This is a directional interpretation, not a probability forecast for the market.
Authority interpretation
Restaurant Online openings trackerDefinitions used on this page
- Planning speed
- The share of observed qualifying applications receiving a favourable recorded decision within 180 days of validation.
- Qualifying application
- A full planning case explicitly concerning a restaurant, café, pub, takeaway or food-and-drink use under the published rule.
- Class E
- A broad commercial use class that can allow some changes of use without a full planning application.
- Outcome coverage
- The share of eligible cases with enough public evidence to score. Missing outcomes are not counted as failures.
Suggested citation: Authority Intelligence, “London Restaurant Outlook & Planning Speed Index: September 2026,” data checked 28 August 2026; headline index data through February 2026 and live shadow forecasts checked 24 August 2026.
Index facts
What this number means
- Current score
- 49.8 out of 100
- Measured period
- Trailing 12 months to February 2026
- Geography
- London, United Kingdom
- Definition
- Share of comparable restaurant-related applications receiving a favourable decision within 180 days
- Sample
- 482 observed applications; 240 received a timely favourable decision
- Outcome coverage
- 95.6% of the eligible cohort was observable
- Index record updated
- 2026-08-28
Date guide
How the dates on this page work
- Page updated
- 28 August 2026
- Headline index data through
- February 2026
- Live forecast status checked
- 24 August 2026
The date Authority last checked the page, market outlook and live application panel.
Each historical application needs a full 180-day outcome window, and the monthly cohort must retain at least 90% observable outcomes. A case is observable when it has a dated decision or, if no decision is recorded, the source was checked after its deadline.
The named application forecasts are more recent than the historical index. They remain unresolved and do not change the February 2026 index score.
London restaurant planning speed
Monthly · trailing 12 complete months · at least 90% outcome coverage
Hover or tap the line · click numbered explanations
Last month
+1.7 points · vs Jan 2026
Last quarter
+1.7 points · vs Nov 2025
Last year
+4.9 points · vs Feb 2025
This is an observed historical planning rate, not a current forecast or an openings index. The rolling window makes changes appear gradually. Markers identify evidence-backed likely contributors, but the available data cannot isolate one cause with certainty.
View the complete historical data table
| Period | Score | Cases | Favourable | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2021 | 46.9 | 636 | 298 | 100.0% |
| Jan 2022 | 47.2 | 638 | 301 | 100.0% |
| Feb 2022 | 45.6 | 652 | 297 | 100.0% |
| Mar 2022 | 44.7 | 657 | 294 | 100.0% |
| Apr 2022 | 44.3 | 655 | 290 | 100.0% |
| May 2022 | 44.3 | 663 | 294 | 100.0% |
| Jun 2022 | 44.3 | 644 | 285 | 100.0% |
| Jul 2022 | 45.1 | 654 | 295 | 100.0% |
| Aug 2022 | 44.7 | 671 | 300 | 100.0% |
| Sep 2022 | 45.4 | 670 | 304 | 100.0% |
| Oct 2022 | 44.8 | 677 | 303 | 100.0% |
| Nov 2022 | 45.0 | 669 | 301 | 100.0% |
| Dec 2022 | 44.5 | 679 | 302 | 100.0% |
| Jan 2023 | 43.8 | 653 | 286 | 100.0% |
| Feb 2023 | 43.9 | 647 | 284 | 100.0% |
| Mar 2023 | 42.9 | 631 | 271 | 100.0% |
| Apr 2023 | 42.9 | 631 | 271 | 100.0% |
| May 2023 | 43.3 | 631 | 273 | 100.0% |
| Jun 2023 | 44.1 | 632 | 279 | 100.0% |
| Jul 2023 | 42.7 | 626 | 267 | 100.0% |
| Aug 2023 | 41.9 | 625 | 262 | 100.0% |
| Sep 2023 | 41.4 | 618 | 256 | 100.0% |
| Oct 2023 | 42.0 | 581 | 244 | 100.0% |
| Nov 2023 | 41.8 | 598 | 250 | 100.0% |
| Dec 2023 | 41.8 | 610 | 255 | 100.0% |
| Jan 2024 | 40.8 | 630 | 257 | 100.0% |
| Feb 2024 | 41.3 | 622 | 257 | 100.0% |
| Mar 2024 | 41.6 | 615 | 256 | 100.0% |
| Apr 2024 | 42.0 | 616 | 259 | 100.0% |
| May 2024 | 41.6 | 599 | 249 | 100.0% |
| Jun 2024 | 41.1 | 596 | 245 | 100.0% |
| Jul 2024 | 41.7 | 590 | 246 | 100.0% |
| Aug 2024 | 42.3 | 579 | 245 | 100.0% |
| Sep 2024 | 43.6 | 589 | 257 | 100.0% |
| Oct 2024 | 44.0 | 607 | 267 | 100.0% |
| Nov 2024 | 43.8 | 608 | 266 | 100.0% |
| Dec 2024 | 43.8 | 589 | 258 | 99.7% |
| Jan 2025 | 45.3 | 581 | 263 | 99.3% |
| Feb 2025 | 44.9 | 570 | 256 | 99.0% |
| Mar 2025 | 45.3 | 567 | 257 | 98.6% |
| Apr 2025 | 46.1 | 564 | 260 | 98.4% |
| May 2025 | 46.0 | 559 | 257 | 98.4% |
| Jun 2025 | 46.4 | 565 | 262 | 98.3% |
| Jul 2025 | 48.0 | 546 | 262 | 98.2% |
| Aug 2025 | 47.4 | 538 | 255 | 98.2% |
| Sep 2025 | 47.3 | 522 | 247 | 98.1% |
| Oct 2025 | 46.6 | 521 | 243 | 97.4% |
| Nov 2025 | 48.1 | 503 | 242 | 96.9% |
| Dec 2025 | 48.2 | 504 | 243 | 96.6% |
| Jan 2026 | 48.1 | 493 | 237 | 96.1% |
| Feb 2026 | 49.8 | 482 | 240 | 95.6% |
Recent market developments
What changed and why it matters
A sourced monthly briefing around the market measured by this index. The event facts come from the linked sources; the “why it matters” lines are Authority’s interpretation.
Updated for September 2026 edition. This section is refreshed as material planning, investment and operating events occur.
6 August 2026
Time Out confirmed a 26,400 sq ft London flagship
Time Out Market London is planned for 55 Regent Street with about 15 hospitality operators across three floors and an expected opening in the first half of 2028.
Authority reading
Large multi-operator formats are still attracting long-term capital in prime central locations. The long lead time also shows that restaurant property commitments and actual openings should be tracked separately.
18 to 21 August 2026
The opening pipeline included both expansion and new concepts
Recent announcements included Caravan's largest site, a new Bancone hotel restaurant, a reopened Clerkenwell pub with a restaurant and several independent launches.
Authority reading
The pipeline is not one uniform market. Large groups, hotel-linked restaurants, pubs and independents face different property economics and planning needs, which is why the outlook should track named projects as well as one average index.
13 August 2026
Beefbar announced a new Soho flagship
The international restaurant brand is taking over the Dear Jackie space at Broadwick Soho, with a redesigned terrace and a September opening target.
Authority reading
This is evidence of continued premium-brand demand, but it is also a replacement within an existing hospitality property. It should not be read as proof that the wider market is expanding at the same rate.
Forward outlook
What Authority expects to matter next
London’s opening pipeline remains active, but planning data captures only the projects that need formal permission. The useful next signals are whether announced venues actually open, how complex applications resolve and whether the recent planning recovery persists.
Complex property works will dominate the index
Extraction, terraces, takeaways, pubs and major alterations should remain more visible than simple restaurant changes inside existing Class E space.
Openings and planning must stay separate
A strong announcement pipeline can coexist with slow planning or weak operating performance because they measure different stages.
Borough differences may matter more than the average
Local policy and case mix can produce very different outcomes, so a named site should be assessed against its borough and application type.
The recovery still needs confirmation
The latest mature score is higher, but Authority will only extend the line when newer cases complete the 180-day window and retain at least 90% outcome coverage.
This is a directional market outlook, not a Forecast Factory-validated probability forecast for the restaurant market. The named raw O3 forecasts below are separately labelled and do not alter the index.
Recent expert commentary
What London restaurant specialists are saying now
Recent views from a restaurant operator and a licensed-leisure adviser show both active investment and the importance of local policy. These comments describe the current operating backdrop; they do not change Authority's historical planning score.
Only attributable views published in the previous 30 days are included. Every quote links to its original source.
Laura Harper-Hinton
Co-founder and Chief Executive
Caravan
“It's our 10th restaurant and our biggest opening to date, and we couldn't think of a more iconic place to reach that milestone.”
Why this matters for the index
Caravan's Southbank commitment is direct evidence that an established operator is still investing in a large London opening. It does not show the wider market is expanding, nor that the planning process has become faster.
James Shorthouse
Head of Specialist Markets and Licensed & Leisure
Colliers
“Delivering its ambitions will require meaningful support through transport investment, policing and proactive local authority policies.”
Why this matters for the index
Shorthouse's view explains why borough policy and the wider operating environment matter alongside planning decisions. The index measures only comparable planning outcomes, so it cannot capture licensing, policing, transport or trading conditions.
These are recent external views from named practitioners. Authority selected short exact quotations from the linked sources. The commentary is not an endorsement, does not alter the index and is not presented as proof of causation.
What may have moved the index
An expert reading of the change
Isabella's planning and mixed-use experience supports two explanations: Class E changed which restaurant projects still need planning permission, and the wider planning system partly recovered during 2024. She says takeaway restrictions near schools are unlikely to move the overall index noticeably.
Isabella is a residential and mixed-use development specialist, rather than a restaurant-sector specialist. This review reflects her planning-system experience.
Class E changed the application mix
Routine changes between shops, restaurants and other commercial uses often no longer need a full application. The remaining cases are therefore more likely to involve ventilation, terraces, pubs, takeaways or substantial building work.
The wider planning system improved
Lower congestion, fee changes and tighter deadlines could explain part of the 2024 recovery. Isabella sees this as one contributor, not a complete explanation.
Takeaway restrictions near schools
This policy can matter to an individual application, but takeaways near schools are too rare to explain much movement in the full restaurant index. Isabella considers it a possible red herring at market level.
Her overall judgement
The index's movements are small. Isabella believes Class E and the wider planning-system changes explain those fluctuations adequately, with no obvious missing restaurant-market shock.
This is professional market interpretation of the observed movement. It does not change the index calculation or prove that any one factor caused the result.
Market context
Planning speed weakened, then partly recovered.
The rolling rate fell from roughly 47% after the pandemic reopening period to around 41% in early 2024, before recovering to almost 50% by February 2026. Business costs, relief schemes and planning-process changes all altered the backdrop during that period.
Latest index score
February 2026 mature cohort
Observed applications
March 2025 to February 2026
Outcome coverage
Above the 90% publication threshold
Source records inspected
Exact phrase-matched public records
Live application forecasts
Six live restaurant forecasts tracked by this index
These are genuinely unresolved applications selected from 66 qualifying direct-use cases before forecasting. Each percentage is the average of three isolated O3 views using the official application record and the earlier historical approval rate.
Westminster
Westminster · 26/04063/FULL
Facade alterations, new steps, condensers and restaurant ventilation extraction at roof level near Brick Street and Grantham Place.
Forecast approval probability
18 August 2026Resolves by
14 February 2027
Wandsworth
Wandsworth · 2026/2598
Alterations connected with changing a Sui Generis premises into a Class E restaurant.
Forecast approval probability
3 August 2026Resolves by
30 January 2027
Hammersmith & Fulham
Hammersmith & Fulham · P/2026/00731/FUL
Change from storage into an indoor recreation facility with an ancillary café, accessibility works, cycle parking and waste storage.
Forecast approval probability
5 August 2026Resolves by
1 February 2027
Westminster
Westminster · 26/04601/FULL
External refurbishment of a takeaway shopfront, including full-height glazing and a new traditional-style serving window.
Forecast approval probability
5 August 2026Resolves by
1 February 2027
Lambeth
Lambeth · 26/02289/FUL
Alterations to an existing restaurant terrace, replacing its canopy, front balustrade and side screens.
Forecast approval probability
10 August 2026Resolves by
6 February 2027
Greenwich
Greenwich · 26/1686/F
Refurbishment and extension of a public house, plus a rear hotel building with a ground-floor reception, bar and restaurant.
Forecast approval probability
10 August 2026Resolves by
6 February 2027
Live and unresolved as of 24 August 2026. These are raw O3 shadow forecasts, not validated Authority forecasts. No Authority correction was applied because the restaurant indicator model did not pass its historical uncertainty gate. The six-case panel used 18 calls and cost $0.15.
Underlying evidence
How borough outcomes differ
Shown only for borough cohorts meeting the minimum sample and coverage rules. These are useful comparisons, not permanent league-table rankings.
63 observed of 66 applications
95.5% outcome coverage
27 observed of 28 applications
96.4% outcome coverage
26 observed applications
100% outcome coverage
20 observed applications
100% outcome coverage
20 observed applications
100% outcome coverage
19 observed of 20 applications
95.0% outcome coverage
Method
How to read this benchmark
- Include full planning applications and combined full-planning consent types that explicitly concern restaurants, cafés, pubs or takeaways.
- Measure whether the recorded decision was favourable within 180 days of validation.
- Treat a case as observable when it has a dated decision or, if it has no usable decision, when the public source was checked after its 180-day deadline.
- Publish a rolling cohort only when at least 90% of outcomes are observable; unresolved cases remain unresolved.
- Keep this separate from business openings, closures, survival and commercial performance.
Frequently asked questions
Questions about this index
How quickly are London restaurant planning applications being approved?
In the latest published mature cohort, 231 of 528 observed restaurant, café, pub and takeaway applications received a favourable recorded decision within 180 days. That produces an index score of 43.8.
Is London restaurant planning speed improving?
The mature rolling score is 43.8, which is 2.5 points above February 2024. The recovery is visible in the measured data, although the trailing 12-month window means changes appear gradually.
Does the index cover every new London restaurant?
No. Some changes between shops, restaurants and other Class E uses can proceed without a full planning application. The index more often captures cases involving extraction, terraces, pubs, takeaways or substantial building work.
Does a favourable planning decision mean a restaurant will open successfully?
No. Planning is only one development hurdle. Fit-out, licensing, finance, staffing, opening and commercial survival are outside this index and must be tracked separately.
What does Authority expect for London restaurant development in late 2026?
Authority expects continued named openings and premium concepts, while planning remains most relevant to projects with complex property works. This is a directional interpretation, not a probability forecast for the market.
What is the outlook for the London restaurant market in 2026?
The development pipeline remains active, with flagship, group and independent openings announced across London. Planning remains a meaningful filter for the more complex projects, while simple Class E conversions often sit outside the planning index. Operating performance and survival must be assessed separately.
What does the London Restaurant Planning Speed Index measure?
It measures the share of comparable restaurant, café, pub and takeaway planning applications receiving a favourable recorded decision within 180 days. It does not measure restaurant openings or business performance.
Why are ordinary restaurant openings not all included?
Class E allows some changes between shops, restaurants and other commercial uses without a full planning application. The index therefore mainly sees cases that still require planning, such as extraction systems, terraces, pubs, takeaways or substantial building work.
Does the latest score describe the restaurant economy?
No. It describes the planning process for the measured applications. Rent, consumer demand, insolvencies and restaurant survival are separate questions.
Why does the public series stop at February 2026?
February 2026 is the latest complete validation month whose applications have all had a full 180-day outcome window as of 28 August 2026. The cohort also passes the 90% outcome-coverage rule.
Can I download the historical observations?
Yes. JSON and CSV versions are linked in the index facts box and contain every published period and its underlying case counts.