Authority Intelligence · London planning
Verified 25 August 2026
London Borough Planning Certainty Index
How consistently do London boroughs give substantive planning applications a favourable decision within 180 days? The index uses one fixed rule across every borough and every month.
Out of 100
12 months to Dec 2025
12,316 of 18,360 fully observed applications met the rule.
Historical London planning certainty
Monthly, trailing 12-month validation cohorts · each case receives a full 180-day observation window
Hover or tap the line · click numbered explanations
This is a planning-decision index, not a measure of construction or project delivery. A high score means timely favourable decisions were common in the measured cohort. It does not prove that approved projects were financed, started or completed.
Market context
The London average hides large differences between boroughs.
The same application definition, 180-day clock and evidence rule are applied everywhere. That makes the borough comparison useful, while the trailing 12-month window keeps one unusually busy month from dominating the result.
Latest London score
For the 12 months to Dec 2025.
Observed applications
90.3% of the eligible cohort had enough evidence to score.
Boroughs ranked
Only boroughs with at least 100 observed cases and 90% outcome coverage appear.
Fixed decision window
Measured from the application validation date.
Live application forecasts
Live London planning forecasts
These are named, unresolved applications scored by frozen Authority indicator models. Each forecast was locked before its outcome and can be checked against the public planning record when its deadline arrives.
Prime residential
Wandsworth · 2026/0837
Will Wandsworth application 2026/0837, converting one upper-floor home into five self-contained homes, be recorded as Approved by 19 September 2026?
Authority probability of approval
24 August 2026Resolves by
19 September 2026
Hotels
Islington · P2026/2046/FUL
Will Islington application P2026/2046/FUL, converting part of 40 Islington High Street into a hotel and mixed-use development, be recorded as Approved by 14 August 2027?
Authority probability of approval
24 August 2026Resolves by
14 August 2027
These probabilities are not calculated from the index score. Each uses its own historically tested forecast family and fixed resolution window. Only families that passed the historical publication gate are shown. The prime-residential forecast uses a 180-day window; the hotel forecast uses a 365-day window. Both outcomes remain unresolved.
Underlying evidence
Planning certainty by London borough
These are the latest mature trailing-12-month borough results. Smaller or incomplete borough samples are withheld instead of being ranked on weak evidence.
Wandsworth
Latest reliable: Dec 2025 · 744 cases · 92.1% coverage
Monthly trailing-12-month score. Hover or tap for the cases behind each point.
Islington
Latest reliable: Mar 2024 · 601 cases · 90.2% coverage
Monthly trailing-12-month score. Hover or tap for the cases behind each point.
Camden
Latest reliable: Jul 2024 · 859 cases · 90.1% coverage
Monthly trailing-12-month score. Hover or tap for the cases behind each point.
744 observed cases · 92.1% coverage
620 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source557 observed cases · 91.0% coverage
431 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source2,125 observed cases · 94.0% coverage
1,554 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source527 observed cases · 96.5% coverage
384 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source604 observed cases · 95.7% coverage
437 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source579 observed cases · 94.5% coverage
408 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source872 observed cases · 96.6% coverage
600 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source475 observed cases · 90.8% coverage
327 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source206 observed cases · 92.8% coverage
138 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source640 observed cases · 97.6% coverage
424 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source822 observed cases · 90.6% coverage
536 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source582 observed cases · 95.9% coverage
377 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source218 observed cases · 90.8% coverage
141 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source798 observed cases · 94.5% coverage
488 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source805 observed cases · 96.2% coverage
419 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source284 observed cases · 96.6% coverage
145 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source540 observed cases · 94.1% coverage
275 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source657 observed cases · 92.9% coverage
305 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source235 observed cases · 91.8% coverage
109 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
Source372 observed cases · 91.6% coverage
156 applications received a recorded favourable decision within 180 days.
SourceMethod
How to read this benchmark
- Start with applications validated from January 2021 in the Planning London Datahub. Keep only full planning permission, full planning with listed-building consent, and full planning with conservation-area demolition consent.
- Keep only applications handled by one of London's 33 borough planning authorities. Development corporations and the Greater London Authority are not mixed into the borough comparison.
- For each application, ask whether the recorded borough decision was favourable within 180 days of validation. Later approvals and refusals do not count as timely favourable decisions.
- Do not treat a missing outcome as a failure. A cohort is shown only when at least 90% of its applications can be observed, and each published month must have completed the full 180-day window.
- Calculate monthly points from trailing 12-month cohorts. Rank an individual borough only when it contributes at least 100 observed applications with at least 90% coverage.