Authority and Oxford AI are collaborating to advance specialised AI forecasting.

Future Intelligence for Investors

The future, quantified.

Authority develops specialised AI models that quantify the probability of market-moving events. Forecasts update as new evidence changes the odds.

Investment-grade forecasts · Public evidence · Measurable performance

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M&A regulatory72% illustrative

Semiconductor transaction forecast to receive regulatory clearance

Illustrative example

Industry partners

Investment-grade forecasts

Intelligence for the decisions that matter.

Authority translates regulatory approvals, corporate transactions, refinancing decisions and policy changes into quantified probabilities. Every forecast has a defined outcome, probability and time horizon.

Illustrative forecastSemiconductors · merger arbitrage

The Axcelis and Veeco transaction has a Q1 2027 closing window.

This illustrative transaction forecast shows how regulatory progress and timetable changes can alter the estimated probability of closing.

72%illustrative probability of closing by 31 March 2027

Illustrative probability the Axcelis and Veeco transaction closes by 31 March 2027

Weekly model probability

ObservedForecastRange

Illustrative model input

The transaction timetable, financing terms and any remedy language should move the probability. Generic deal sentiment should not.

Illustrative risk factor

Chinese clearance is the gating event. A revised public timetable or change in regulator engagement should update the forecast immediately.

Forecast outlook

The deal remains more likely than not to close in Q1 2027, but Chinese regulatory clearance is the gating event.

The probability should rise with evidence of regulatory progress and a reaffirmed timetable. It should fall if the parties extend the schedule, alter financing terms or signal material remedies.

Through 31 March 2027

Updated as new regulatory filings, project milestones and expert evidence change the probability.

Forecast performance

Accuracy is measurable.

Authority records numerical probabilities, tracks revisions and evaluates forecasts against resolved events. Investment teams can assess the evidence and performance independently.

Your research. Your investment decisions. Our probabilities.

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Timestamped forecasts

Each probability and subsequent revision is recorded.

Resolved outcomes

Forecasts are evaluated when the defined event resolves.

Proper scoring

Performance can be assessed with Brier scores and relevant baselines.

Traceable evidence

Important updates link back to publicly available sources.

Intelligence informed by industry leaders.

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