Search-demand evidence file · tested against 4 years of history
Distress-seller searches just hit a 4-year high. It's not the New Year effect.
The obvious objection to a January spike is that everyone searches to sell their house in January. So we checked: three prior Januaries, a neutral control keyword, and 48 months of history. This page shows exactly what we found. Published July 12, 2026.
This January vs the average January of 2023–2025 (580 searches per month)
January 2026 seller-urgency searches: the highest single month in 4 years of data
Neutral “sell my house” control, same months, vs its own 3-year average
Cost per click on “cash offer for my house”: the market price of one distress lead
Is this just a January thing?
We pulled 48 months of DFW search history, from July 2022 through June 2026, for the seller-urgency cluster and a neutral “sell my house” control. The two series run at very different raw volumes (hundreds versus thousands of searches a month), so both are indexed to 100 at their July 2022 level — that puts them on one shared axis and makes the divergence directly comparable.
For three straight years the seller-urgency line only showed a modest recurring bump every September, which faded back within a month or two each time; January was never the seasonal high. Starting December 2025 it broke well above that range and stayed elevated for six consecutive months, climbing to 331 (up 231% on its 2022 starting point) at its January peak. The control line moved the opposite direction over the same stretch, ending near 80 (down about 20%). One line surged, the other slipped — that divergence is the signal.
Every January, side by side
| Search type | Jan '23 | Jan '24 | Jan '25 | Jan '26 | vs 3-yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distress-seller searches | 480 | 780 | 480 | 2,020 | +248% |
| Investor cash-buyer searches | 370 | 550 | 290 | 570 | +41% |
| Neutral "sell my house" control | 10,100 | 10,580 | 12,360 | 8,570 | -22% |
The control keyword is the strongest evidence here: if January were simply when everyone thinks about selling, the neutral “sell my house” search should have spiked too. It didn't — it ran below its own 3-year average. Only the urgency-framed searches broke out.
The last 12 months, in detail
Zooming into the current window: seller-urgency searches broke out in December and have held through June. Investor cash-buyer search hasn't collapsed — it's been on a steady multi-year uptrend (350 to 360 to 483 average monthly searches, year over year) and 2026 is roughly flat with 2025, not a reversal.
How this was measured
The claim, precisely
DFW searches signalling urgency to sell (“sell my house fast”, “sell as is”) hit 2,020 in January 2026, the highest month in 4 years of data and 3.5x the average January of the prior 3 years. Over the same months, a neutral “sell my house” control ran 19% below its own 3-year average, meaning general seller search interest did not rise. The elevation has persisted 6 months rather than reverting like the cluster's normal seasonal pattern (a small September bump) always has.
Data source and method
- Google Ads search-volume data via DataForSEO, targeted to the Dallas-Fort Worth metro (location 200623).
- 48 monthly observations, July 2022 through June 2026, for the seasonality test.
- 25 distress-signal keywords grouped into six intent clusters, plus a neutral control keyword with no urgency or cash framing.
- Seasonality is tested by comparing each January to the same month in the 3 prior years, and by checking whether a neutral control keyword moved the same way.
- The recent-window growth figures compare the average of the last three months against the first three of a 12-month period.
Why it matters: a homeowner searching “sell my house fast” is future inventory that has not reached the MLS yet, and the cost per click that investors pay for these searches ($24 to $182) is independent market confirmation that the leads convert.
Every keyword, every recent month
The full recent-window dataset behind the clusters above. The trend column plots each keyword against its own 12-month peak; Δ compares the last three months to the first three.
| Keyword | Trend | Jul 25 | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan 26 | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Δ | CPC | AI/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seller urgency | 590 | 400 | 1,090 | 510 | 500 | 1,700 | 2,020 | 1,930 | 1,800 | 1,540 | 990 | 850 | +63% | |||
| sell my house fast dallas | 480 | 320 | 720 | 390 | 210 | 1,300 | 1,600 | 1,600 | 1,300 | 1,300 | 720 | 720 | +80% | $24.50 | – | |
| sell my house fast fort worth | 90 | 70 | 320 | 90 | 260 | 390 | 390 | 320 | 480 | 210 | 260 | 110 | +21% | $124.13 | – | |
| sell my house fast texas | 20 | 10 | 30 | 20 | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -50% | $47.97 | 1 | |
| sell house as is dallas | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 | +100% | – | 3 | |
| need to sell my house quickly | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0% | – | – | |
| Investor cash buyers | 310 | 310 | 1,230 | 390 | 220 | 500 | 570 | 400 | 640 | 570 | 360 | 270 | -35% | |||
| we buy houses dallas | 140 | 140 | 480 | 210 | 70 | 320 | 320 | 260 | 390 | 390 | 170 | 140 | -8% | $54.01 | – | |
| we buy houses fort worth | 30 | 40 | 390 | 30 | 90 | 90 | 50 | 20 | 50 | 30 | 30 | 10 | -85% | $60.22 | – | |
| cash home buyers dallas | 110 | 110 | 320 | 110 | 40 | 50 | 170 | 90 | 170 | 90 | 110 | 90 | -46% | $89.05 | – | |
| companies that buy houses dallas | 20 | 0 | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | -80% | – | – | |
| cash offer for my house | 10 | 20 | 10 | 30 | 10 | 30 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 50 | 50 | 30 | +225% | $182.12 | 18 | |
| Foreclosure track | 800 | 620 | 730 | 890 | 910 | 910 | 1,050 | 780 | 930 | 890 | 850 | 720 | +14% | |||
| stop foreclosure texas | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 40 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 30 | 20 | 20 | +75% | $17.72 | 29 | |
| avoid foreclosure texas | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 40 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 30 | 20 | 20 | +75% | $17.72 | 1 | |
| foreclosure homes dallas | 590 | 480 | 590 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 880 | 590 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 590 | +22% | $1.93 | – | |
| how long does foreclosure take in texas | 20 | 20 | 20 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 50 | 30 | 40 | 30 | 30 | 30 | +50% | $5.08 | 15 | |
| notice of default texas | 40 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -50% | – | 2 | |
| texas foreclosure process | 110 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 70 | 90 | 90 | 110 | 70 | 70 | 50 | 50 | -41% | $3.11 | 9 | |
| Hardship events | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0% | |||
| selling house during divorce texas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | new | – | – | |
| behind on mortgage payments | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0% | $5.95 | 36 | |
| Landlord exits | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | new | |||
| sell rental property dallas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | new | – | – | |
| Market watch | 40 | 30 | 20 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -67% | |||
| dallas housing inventory | 40 | 30 | 20 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -67% | – | – | |
What could still prove this wrong
Honest caveats
- We tested one neutral control keyword and one metro. A fuller replication would check several non-distress queries and add Tarrant County specifically, not just the combined DFW metro.
- The wave has crested: seller-urgency volume peaked at 2,020 in January and eased to about 850 by June. It remains well above the 4-year ceiling, but is decelerating from its peak.
- Small keywords (30 searches per month or fewer) are directional at best; the cluster totals carry the claim, not any single term.
- Search is a leading indicator, not a transaction record. Confirmation would be rising off-market and wholesale activity, then MLS inventory, over the next two quarters.
We can show the breakout is real and not seasonal. We cannot yet show what caused it. Something changed for DFW homeowners starting around December 2025 — a rate move, an insurance renewal cycle, appraisal notices, local economic news — and the search data alone doesn't say what. That is the next thing worth investigating.
This page is for informational purposes only and is not investment, financial, or real estate advice. Data pulled July 12, 2026.