Will the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 rise at least 5% in 2027?

Fine wine investment forecast.

Prediction liftPrediction drop
Sophia GilmourJames MilesColin HayMiles DavisExpert insights from Sophia Gilmour, James Miles and others
20%25%30%35%40%45%50%Nov 2024Jan 2025AprJulOctJan 2026AprJulOctToday 40.0%123456720%25%30%35%40%45%50%Nov 2024JulJan 2026JulToday 40.0%1234567

The numbered markers show how market developments changed this forecast. Gold marks an increase in probability; dark marks a decrease.

Methodology audited by Oxford AI

The Fine Wine 1000 fell sharply in 2024 and lost another 4.5% in 2025 as US buyers pulled back over tariffs. It found a floor around February 2026, survived a March dip during the Iran war, and has gained momentum since: up 0.5% in August and 0.6% in October, its best month since 2022, with bids now outnumbering offers and US trade buyers restocking. Still, the index is only about 1-2% up for 2026, and the trade expects modest gains. For a Yes, 2027 needs an average of roughly 0.4% a month, close to the recent pace. The main risk is rising UK interest rates: markets expect the Bank of England to lift rates toward 4.75% by mid-2027, which raises the cost of holding wine. We put the chance at about 40%.

Resolves 31 December 2027 · Yes if the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000's December 2027 value is at least 5.0% above its December 2026 value, as published by Liv-ex.

Why the forecast moved 7 events, newest first, numbered as on the chart · forecast last updated 4 November 2026

#DateEvent and reasoningChangeSource
721 Oct 2026Liv-ex 1000 rises 0.6%, strongest monthly gain since September 2022Momentum is accelerating into 2027.+3.0 pts41.0% → 44.0%Source
61 Sep 2026Liv-ex: US trade restocking; bid:offer ratios doubled in 12 monthsReturning US demand is the main fuel for price rises.+3.0 pts25.0% → 28.0%Source
523 Mar 2026Liv-ex member survey expects the Fine Wine 100 to rise only 2.1% in the next yearThe trade expects gains well short of 5% a year.-2.0 pts28.0% → 26.0%Source
416 Dec 2025Liv-ex 1000 up 0.4%, a third month of gains, with prices at a five-year lowA run of gains from a low base supports a recovery path.+2.0 pts24.0% → 26.0%Source
318 Nov 2025Merchant note flags consecutive monthly gains in the Liv-ex 1000First sign of a turn in the settling index.+2.0 pts22.0% → 24.0%Source
22 Oct 2025Liv-ex: US buyers' tariff 'exodus' caused some of the sharpest falls of the downturnLoss of the biggest buyer group weighs on prices.-2.0 pts24.0% → 22.0%Source
16 Dec 2024WineNews: Liv-ex 1000 down 11.1% in first 11 months of 2024Shows the depth of the downturn the index has to climb out of.-3.0 pts30.0% → 27.0%Source

Expert commentary 5 quotes attached to the tracked events · each checked against its source

WhoWhat they said#Source
Sophia Gilmour LinkedIn ↗Market Analyst, Liv-exCompany“Traded volumes dropped, and soon after, so too did prices,”2thedrinksbusiness.com
James Miles LinkedIn ↗Chairman, CEO and Co-Founder, Liv-exCompany“We’re starting to see the Americans buying – they’re not quite back to where they were in Q1 of last year, but they’re perhaps 80% of the way back to that level,”12 Feb 2026thedrinksbusiness.com
James Miles LinkedIn ↗Chairman, CEO and Co-Founder, Liv-exCompany“We are not expecting a new bull run anytime soon, but it does feel like a good time… to start buying again.”6thedrinksbusiness.com
Colin Hay LinkedIn ↗Bordeaux correspondent, The Drinks BusinessIndependent“So the economics from that point onwards, which could be as early as 2028, or 2029, are rather different,”21 Sep 2026thedrinksbusiness.com
Miles Davis LinkedIn ↗Fine wine consultant, Vinum Fine WinesIndependent“It is very much at the top end [that] we’ve seen a good uptick in demand,”29 Sep 2026thedrinksbusiness.com

Built using the most accurate forecasting models on Earth, by Authority.inc. Methodology audited by Oxford AI. Last updated 4 November 2026.